The San Diego Padres signed Manny Machado to a ten year $300 million dollar deal this week. While the deal is good for baseball and the Padres, is it good for Machado and his fantasy value? Time will tell.
Machado has averaged 31 home runs and 90 RBI per season in his six year career. Those are very good averages by today’s standards. That is why Machado got the contract that he got from the Padres.
Machado’s numbers were bolstered by playing 81 home games at Camden Yards, one of baseball’s friendliest hitter parks. Machado has hit 175 home runs in his career. 99 of those were hit at Camden Yards and 7 of them were hit at Dodger Stadium. The other 69 home runs in his career were hit on the road. Machado clearly benefitted from hitting at Camden Yards but his power translates to any park.
The move to Petco Park is concerning on the surface but remember, the Padres moved the fences in prior to the 2012 season. Home runs have since increased and it is no longer the pitcher’s park it once was. Despite that, the park and a lack of protection in the line up will cut into some of Machado’s production initially.
Machado will adjust and his numbers will reflect that but don’t expect the power numbers we are accustomed to seeing out of him early on.
Machado’s ADP last season was 12. He’s still a top 20 player in reality but in fantasy, I expect him to slip into the 24-36 range. That may seem like a steep drop but perception is reality and the perception is that Petco Park is still a pitcher’s park. Fantasy owners will not draft Machado early this year.
Machado is still an elite hitter but when it comes to value, he is not the value he was while in Baltimore. Despite that, he is still one of the best players in baseball and is at the very least a third round pick in upcoming fantasy drafts.